Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-37%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
607
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Consumer Sentiment moves ~18 months before AUD/USD Exchange Rate
Watch Consumer Sentiment for an early read on AUD/USD Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on values
95% CI
-44% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
607 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
13,878
Normalized
671
13,878
Prepared
671
665
Aligned
607
607
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
607
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-51%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
AUD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Consumer Sentiment today line up with AUD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
589 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+98%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
122
A: 64 / B: 58
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,878 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
40
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0050
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2340
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusal_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y