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Correlation
of values
+38%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
12,296
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on values
95% CI
+37% → +40%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12,296 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,311
13,878
Normalized
12,311
13,878
Prepared
12,311
13,878
Aligned
12,296
12,296
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
12,296
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+38%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12,296 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,597
A: 15 / B: 1582
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,311 raw → 12,311 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,878 raw → 13,878 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
65
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0207
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.6680
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusal_fred-dgs30_daily_5y