SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-12%
of values
In sync
50%
of periods
History
510
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-12%
Based on values
95% CI
-21% → -4%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
510 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
10,383
Normalized
807
10,383
Prepared
807
511
Aligned
510
510
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
1.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
510
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-12%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
510 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-12%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
127 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
298
A: 297 / B: 1
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,383 raw → 511 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
31.3769
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dextaus_fred-totresns_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.