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Correlation
of values
+21%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
515
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Total Vehicle Sales moves ~18 months before USD/TWD Exchange Rate
Watch Total Vehicle Sales for an early read on USD/TWD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on values
95% CI
+13% → +29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
515 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
608
10,475
Normalized
608
10,475
Prepared
608
516
Aligned
515
515
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
515
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+29%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/TWD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Total Vehicle Sales today line up with USD/TWD Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
497 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
94
A: 93 / B: 1
Series A
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 608 raw → 608 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,475 raw → 516 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
45
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3686
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
25.2837
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dextaus_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y