Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+20%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
512
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on values
95% CI
+11% → +28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
512 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
10,398
Normalized
533
10,398
Prepared
533
512
Aligned
512
512
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
512
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
512 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
29 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
21
A: 21 / B: 0
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,398 raw → 512 prepared
Sign agreement
95.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4155
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
30.1161
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dextaus_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y