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Correlation
of values
-13%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
510
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-13%
Based on values
95% CI
-21% → -4%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
510 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
10,398
Normalized
807
10,398
Prepared
807
512
Aligned
510
510
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
1.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
510
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-13%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
510 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-13%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-13%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
299
A: 297 / B: 2
Series A
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,398 raw → 512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0211
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
32.7918
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dextaus_fred-pcepilfe_monthly_5y