Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-12%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
510
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-12%
Based on values
95% CI
-20% → -3%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
510 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
10,398
Normalized
807
10,398
Prepared
807
512
Aligned
510
510
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
1.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
510
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-12%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
510 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-12%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
299
A: 297 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,398 raw → 512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0189
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
32.6100
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dextaus_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y