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Correlation
of values
-47%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
304
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/TWD Exchange Rate moves ~16 months before Job Openings
Watch USD/TWD Exchange Rate for an early read on Job Openings.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
-55% → -38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
304 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
304
10,398
Normalized
304
10,398
Prepared
304
512
Aligned
304
304
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
304
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
-61%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/TWD Exchange Rate shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Job Openings today line up with USD/TWD Exchange Rate 16 months ago?"
288 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
98 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
208
A: 0 / B: 208
Series A
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 304 raw → 304 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,398 raw → 512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
33.4688
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dextaus_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y