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Correlation
of values
+51%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
664
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+51%
Based on values
95% CI
+45% → +56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
664 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
13,885
Normalized
808
13,885
Prepared
808
665
Aligned
664
664
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
664
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
664 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
29 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
145
A: 144 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
USD/CHF Exchange Rate
DEXSZUS
FRED · 13,885 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
66
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0009
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.2650
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexszus_fred-houst_monthly_5y