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Correlation
of values
-64%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
220
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~41% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Federal Debt moves ~18 months before USD/CHF Exchange Rate
Watch Federal Debt for an early read on USD/CHF Exchange Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-64%
Based on values
95% CI
-71% → -55%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
220 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
13,885
Normalized
240
13,885
Prepared
240
665
Aligned
220
220
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
40.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
220
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-73%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CHF Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Federal Debt today line up with USD/CHF Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
202 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
465
A: 20 / B: 445
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
USD/CHF Exchange Rate
DEXSZUS
FRED · 13,885 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0177
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexszus_fred-gfdebtn_monthly_5y