SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-79%
of values
In sync
44%
of periods
History
222
months · through 2026-04
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~62% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Potential GDP moves ~16 months before USD/CHF Exchange Rate
Watch Potential GDP for an early read on USD/CHF Exchange Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-79%
Based on values
95% CI
-83% → -73%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
222 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
352
13,870
Normalized
352
13,870
Prepared
352
664
Aligned
222
222
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
62.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
222
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
-86%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CHF Exchange Rate shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does Potential GDP today line up with USD/CHF Exchange Rate 16 months from now?"
206 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
-86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
98 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+36%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
572
A: 130 / B: 442
Series A
Potential GDP
GDPPOT
FRED · 352 raw → 352 prepared
Series B
USD/CHF Exchange Rate
DEXSZUS
FRED · 13,870 raw → 664 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.9993
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dexszus_fred-gdppot_5y