Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-73%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
221
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~53% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US GDP moves ~18 months before USD/CHF Exchange Rate
Watch US GDP for an early read on USD/CHF Exchange Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → -66%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
221 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
317
13,885
Normalized
317
13,885
Prepared
317
665
Aligned
221
221
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
53.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
221
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-83%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CHF Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does US GDP today line up with USD/CHF Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
203 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
540
A: 96 / B: 444
Series A
US GDP
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
USD/CHF Exchange Rate
DEXSZUS
FRED · 13,885 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.3027
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexszus_fred-gdp_monthly_5y