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Correlation
of values
-43%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
641
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
641 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
13,057
Normalized
941
13,057
Prepared
941
643
Aligned
641
641
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
18%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
641
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
641 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-39%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+8%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
302
A: 300 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,057 raw → 643 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-20.4029
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
217.5340
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexslus_fred-unrate_monthly_5y