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Correlation
of values
+86%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
640
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~74% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+86%
Based on values
95% CI
+84% → +88%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
640 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
13,039
Normalized
808
13,039
Prepared
808
642
Aligned
640
640
Invalid removed
R²(i)
74.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
640
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+86%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
640 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+86%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+80%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
170
A: 168 / B: 2
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,039 raw → 642 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0596
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
44.6276
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dexslus_fred-totresns_monthly_5y