SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-15%
of values
In sync
51%
of periods
History
639
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-15%
Based on values
95% CI
-23% → -7%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
639 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
706
13,010
Normalized
706
13,010
Prepared
706
640
Aligned
639
639
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
2.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
639
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-15%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
639 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-15%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-15%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
96 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-5%
117 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
68
A: 67 / B: 1
Series A
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,010 raw → 640 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5407
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
97.3185
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexslus_fred-recprousm156n_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.