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Correlation
of values
+91%
In sync
of periods
66%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
641
These move in the same direction about 66% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~83% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+91%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
641 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
13,057
Normalized
809
13,057
Prepared
809
643
Aligned
641
641
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
83%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
641
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+91%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
641 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+91%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
170
A: 168 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,057 raw → 643 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.7655
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-108.1192
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexslus_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y