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Correlation
of values
-52%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
642
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~18 months before USD/LKR Exchange Rate
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on USD/LKR Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-52%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
642 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
13,057
Normalized
864
13,057
Prepared
864
643
Aligned
642
642
Invalid removed
27%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
642
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-59%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/LKR Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with USD/LKR Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
624 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-46%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-14%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
223
A: 222 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,057 raw → 643 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-11.2043
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
148.3706
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexslus_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y