SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-52%
of values
In sync
51%
of periods
History
640
months · through 2026-04
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~18 months before USD/LKR Exchange Rate
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on USD/LKR Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-52%
Based on values
95% CI
-58% → -47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
640 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
862
13,010
Normalized
862
13,010
Prepared
862
640
Aligned
640
640
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
27.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
640
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-59%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/LKR Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with USD/LKR Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
622 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
84 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
135 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
222
A: 222 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,010 raw → 640 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-11.1486
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
147.4044
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dexslus_fred-fedfunds_5y