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Correlation
of values
+28%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
543
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on values
95% CI
+20% → +36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
543 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
11,384
Normalized
671
11,384
Prepared
671
545
Aligned
543
543
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
543
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+28%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
543 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
130
A: 128 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,384 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
28
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0061
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0938
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y