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Correlation
of values
-22%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
543
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on values
95% CI
-30% → -13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
543 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
603
11,384
Normalized
603
11,384
Prepared
603
545
Aligned
543
543
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
543
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-22%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
543 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-22%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+20%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
62
A: 60 / B: 2
Series A
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 603 raw → 603 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,384 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
59
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0288
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0548
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y