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Correlation
of values
+84%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
532
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~71% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+84%
Based on values
95% CI
+82% → +87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
532
11,374
Normalized
532
11,374
Prepared
532
545
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
R²(i)
71.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
532 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+21%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+30%
85 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
103 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13
A: 0 / B: 13
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 532 raw → 532 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,374 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1343
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2769
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y