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Correlation
of values
-83%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
544
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~70% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-83%
Based on values
95% CI
-86% → -81%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
544 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,048
11,384
Normalized
1,048
11,384
Prepared
1,048
545
Aligned
544
544
Invalid removed
R²(i)
69.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
544
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-83%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
544 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
97 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
505
A: 504 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,384 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.2314
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-payems_monthly_5y