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Correlation
of values
+44%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
2,368
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on values
95% CI
+41% → +47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,368 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,889
11,384
Normalized
2,889
11,384
Prepared
2,889
2,368
Aligned
2,368
2,368
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,368
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,368 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
96 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
84 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
521
A: 521 / B: 0
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,889 raw → 2,889 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,384 raw → 2,368 prepared
Sign agreement
20.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
50
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1672
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6454
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-nfci_weekly_5y