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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
181
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
USD/SGD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Velocity of M2 Money Stock
Watch USD/SGD Exchange Rate for an early read on Velocity of M2 Money Stock.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
181 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
269
11,384
Normalized
269
11,384
Prepared
269
545
Aligned
181
181
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
181
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+50%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/SGD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Velocity of M2 Money Stock today line up with USD/SGD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
163 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
105 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
452
A: 88 / B: 364
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,384 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4291
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8563
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-m2v_monthly_5y