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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
180
These move opposite each other about 38% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~53% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → -65%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
180 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
11,384
Normalized
240
11,384
Prepared
240
545
Aligned
180
180
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
52.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
180
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
180 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
111 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
425
A: 60 / B: 365
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,384 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.8583
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-gfdebtn_monthly_5y