Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-82%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
181
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~68% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-82%
Based on values
95% CI
-87% → -77%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
181 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
317
11,384
Normalized
317
11,384
Prepared
317
545
Aligned
181
181
Invalid removed
R²(i)
67.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
181
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
181 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-82%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
100 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
500
A: 136 / B: 364
Series A
Real GDP
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,384 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.3699
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-gdpc1_monthly_5y