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Correlation
of values
+39%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
44
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Inflation, consumer prices moves ~9 months before USD/SGD Exchange Rate
Watch Inflation, consumer prices for an early read on USD/SGD Exchange Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on values
95% CI
+10% → +61%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
11,384
Normalized
65
11,384
Prepared
65
545
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
44
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+9 months
Correlation at this shift
+60%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/SGD Exchange Rate shifted 9 months earlier. Reads: "Does Inflation, consumer prices today line up with USD/SGD Exchange Rate 9 months from now?"
35 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 months
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-46%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
26 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
522
A: 21 / B: 501
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
USD/SGD Exchange Rate
DEXSIUS
FRED · 11,384 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
97.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0601
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4380
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsius_fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_monthly_5y