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Correlation
of values
-45%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
557
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-45%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
557 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
11,660
Normalized
941
11,660
Prepared
941
559
Aligned
557
557
Invalid removed
20%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
557
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-45%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
557 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+56%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
386
A: 384 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,660 raw → 559 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.3078
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.4749
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-unrate_monthly_5y