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Correlation
of values
-43%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,074
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on values
95% CI
-44% → -41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,074 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,099
11,628
Normalized
11,099
11,628
Prepared
11,099
11,628
Aligned
11,074
11,074
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,074
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,074 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
84 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-20%
75 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
90 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
579
A: 25 / B: 554
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,099 raw → 11,099 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 11,628 prepared
Sign agreement
88.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
57
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.7842
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.6623
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y