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Correlation
of values
-43%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
11,106
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,106 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,129
11,660
Normalized
11,129
11,660
Prepared
11,129
11,660
Aligned
11,106
11,106
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
18%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
11,106
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,106 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
577
A: 23 / B: 554
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,129 raw → 11,129 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,660 raw → 11,660 prepared
Sign agreement
88.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
57
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.7948
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.6987
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y