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Correlation
of values
+93%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
412
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~87% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+93%
Based on values
95% CI
+92% → +95%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
412 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
11,628
Normalized
412
11,628
Prepared
412
557
Aligned
412
412
Invalid removed
R²(i)
87.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
412
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+93%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
412 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+93%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
83 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
142 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
145
A: 0 / B: 145
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 557 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.1656
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y