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Correlation
of values
+95%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
555
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~90% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+95%
Based on values
95% CI
+94% → +96%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
555 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
11,628
Normalized
807
11,628
Prepared
807
557
Aligned
555
555
Invalid removed
R²(i)
90.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
555
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+95%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
555 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+95%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+95%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
133 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+82%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
111 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
254
A: 252 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 557 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2185
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-9.7665
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y