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Correlation
of values
+92%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
556
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~85% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+92%
Based on values
95% CI
+91% → +93%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
556 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,048
11,628
Normalized
1,048
11,628
Prepared
1,048
557
Aligned
556
556
Invalid removed
R²(i)
84.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
556
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
556 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+92%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
120 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
107 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
493
A: 492 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 557 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-23.5043
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-payems_monthly_5y