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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
2,420
These move opposite each other about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
-36% → -29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,420 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,889
11,628
Normalized
2,889
11,628
Prepared
2,889
2,420
Aligned
2,420
2,420
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,420
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,420 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
82 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
75 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-9%
92 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
469
A: 469 / B: 0
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,889 raw → 2,889 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 2,420 prepared
Sign agreement
22.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.0338
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.3058
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-nfci_weekly_5y