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Correlation
of values
-71%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
2,420
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~51% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
-73% → -69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,420 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,878
11,628
Normalized
2,878
11,628
Prepared
2,878
2,420
Aligned
2,420
2,420
Invalid removed
R²(i)
51.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,420
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-71%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,420 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
78 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
95 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
458
A: 458 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,878 raw → 2,878 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 2,420 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.1199
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.9664
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y