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Correlation
of values
-34%
In sync
of periods
27%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
45
These move opposite each other about 27% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Inflation, consumer prices moves ~7 months before USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
Watch Inflation, consumer prices for an early read on USD/ZAR Exchange Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
27.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on values
95% CI
-58% → -5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
45 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
11,628
Normalized
65
11,628
Prepared
65
557
Aligned
45
45
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
45
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
-60%
+25% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does Inflation, consumer prices today line up with USD/ZAR Exchange Rate 7 months from now?"
38 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
32 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
532
A: 20 / B: 512
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 557 prepared
Sign agreement
97.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7170
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.5169
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_monthly_5y