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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
27%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move opposite each other about 27% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Existing Home Sales moves ~2 months before USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
Watch Existing Home Sales for an early read on USD/ZAR Exchange Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
27.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
-74% → +27%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
13
11,628
Normalized
13
11,628
Prepared
13
557
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
-79%
+47% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does Existing Home Sales today line up with USD/ZAR Exchange Rate 2 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
-79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
544
A: 0 / B: 544
Series A
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 557 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
31.4691
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-exhoslusm495s_monthly_5y