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Correlation
of values
-79%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,573
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~63% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-79%
Based on values
95% CI
-80% → -78%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,573 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,311
11,628
Normalized
12,311
11,628
Prepared
12,311
11,628
Aligned
11,573
11,573
Invalid removed
R²(i)
62.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,573
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-79%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,573 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
83 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
89 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
793
A: 738 / B: 55
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,311 raw → 12,311 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 11,628 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
55
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
16.0373
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-dgs30_daily_5y