SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+65%) is 3.0σ from the long-run average of -63% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-19%) and fall (-32%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,558 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-63%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-64% → -62%
Likely range
R²
40.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
51.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,558
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,558 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,067
11,613
Normalized
16,067
11,613
Prepared
16,067
11,613
Aligned
11,558
11,558
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
80 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-32%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-18%
105 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,564
A: 4509 / B: 55
Series A
DGS1
FRED · 16,067 raw → 16,067 prepared
Series B
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,613 raw → 11,613 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.9150
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
11.6811
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-dgs1_5y