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Correlation
of values
-63%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
11,650
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~39% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-63%
Based on values
95% CI
-64% → -62%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,650 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,155
11,705
Normalized
16,155
11,705
Prepared
16,155
11,705
Aligned
11,650
11,650
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
39%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
11,650
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,650 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,560
A: 4505 / B: 55
Series A
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,155 raw → 16,155 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,705 raw → 11,705 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.9175
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
11.7578
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-dgs1_daily_5y