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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,627
These move opposite each other about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-61% → -59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,627 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,885
11,628
Normalized
13,885
11,628
Prepared
13,885
11,628
Aligned
11,627
11,627
Invalid removed
R²(i)
35.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,627
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,627 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-39%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
158 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,259
A: 2258 / B: 1
Series A
GBP/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSUK
FRED · 13,885 raw → 13,885 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 11,628 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
61
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-13.2331
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
28.4917
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-dexusuk_daily_5y