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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,627
These move opposite each other about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-37% → -34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,627 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,878
11,628
Normalized
13,878
11,628
Prepared
13,878
11,628
Aligned
11,627
11,627
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,627
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,627 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-20%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
172 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,252
A: 2251 / B: 1
Series A
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,878 raw → 13,878 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 11,628 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
85
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-12.9786
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
17.6686
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_fred-dexusal_daily_5y