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Correlation
of values
-50%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
387
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~9 months before USD/SEK Exchange Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on USD/SEK Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on values
95% CI
-57% → -43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
387 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
387
13,884
Normalized
387
13,884
Prepared
387
665
Aligned
387
387
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
387
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+9 months
Correlation at this shift
-60%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/SEK Exchange Rate shifted 9 months earlier. Reads: "Does U-6 Unemployment Rate today line up with USD/SEK Exchange Rate 9 months from now?"
378 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 months
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+33%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
115 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 0 / B: 278
Series A
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 387 raw → 387 prepared
Series B
USD/SEK Exchange Rate
DEXSDUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2210
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.4173
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsdus_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y