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Correlation
of values
-40%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,082
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on values
95% CI
-41% → -38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,082 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,099
13,884
Normalized
11,099
13,884
Prepared
11,099
13,884
Aligned
11,082
11,082
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,082
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,082 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+21%
90 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
93 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
66 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,819
A: 17 / B: 2802
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,099 raw → 11,099 prepared
Series B
USD/SEK Exchange Rate
DEXSDUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 13,884 prepared
Sign agreement
88.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
111
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4328
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.5131
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsdus_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y