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Correlation
of values
+78%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
663
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~61% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+78%
Based on values
95% CI
+75% → +81%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
13,884
Normalized
807
13,884
Prepared
807
665
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
R²(i)
61.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+78%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
663 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+78%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
112 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
127 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
146
A: 144 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/SEK Exchange Rate
DEXSDUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0493
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.6924
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsdus_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y