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Correlation
of values
-45%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
663
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/NOK Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch USD/NOK Exchange Rate for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-45%
Based on values
95% CI
-51% → -39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
13,884
Normalized
939
13,884
Prepared
939
665
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
R²(i)
20.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-51%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/NOK Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with USD/NOK Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
639 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-24%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 276 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
USD/NOK Exchange Rate
DEXNOUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
30
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3869
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.4357
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexnous_fred-unrate_monthly_5y