Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+60%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
665
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~18 months before USD/NOK Exchange Rate
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on USD/NOK Exchange Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
665 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
13,916
Normalized
809
13,916
Prepared
809
667
Aligned
665
665
Invalid removed
36%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
665
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+67%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/NOK Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Bank Reserves today line up with USD/NOK Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
647 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+76%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
146
A: 144 / B: 2
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
USD/NOK Exchange Rate
DEXNOUS
FRED · 13,916 raw → 667 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0007
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.5062
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexnous_fred-totresns_monthly_5y