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Correlation
of values
+61%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
667
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~37% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~18 months before USD/NOK Exchange Rate
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on USD/NOK Exchange Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+61%
Based on values
95% CI
+56% → +65%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
667 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
13,961
Normalized
811
13,961
Prepared
811
669
Aligned
667
667
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
37%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
667
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+68%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/NOK Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Bank Reserves today line up with USD/NOK Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
649 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
146
A: 144 / B: 2
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
USD/NOK Exchange Rate
DEXNOUS
FRED · 13,961 raw → 669 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0008
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.5056
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexnous_fred-totresns_monthly_5y