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Correlation
of values
+40%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
603
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/NOK Exchange Rate moves ~12 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch USD/NOK Exchange Rate for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on values
95% CI
+34% → +47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
603 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
603
13,884
Normalized
603
13,884
Prepared
603
665
Aligned
603
603
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
603
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
+48%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/NOK Exchange Rate shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Total Vehicle Sales today line up with USD/NOK Exchange Rate 12 months ago?"
591 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-37%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
62
A: 0 / B: 62
Series A
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 603 raw → 603 prepared
Series B
USD/NOK Exchange Rate
DEXNOUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
68
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2733
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.0393
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexnous_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y