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Correlation
of values
-39%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
389
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on values
95% CI
-47% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
389 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
8,153
Normalized
671
8,153
Prepared
671
391
Aligned
389
389
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
389
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
389 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
127 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
284
A: 282 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1280
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
24.1272
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y