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Correlation
of values
+86%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
390
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~73% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+86%
Based on values
95% CI
+83% → +88%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
390 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
8,167
Normalized
808
8,167
Prepared
808
392
Aligned
390
390
Invalid removed
R²(i)
73.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
390
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+86%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
390 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+86%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+65%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+36%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
420
A: 418 / B: 2
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,167 raw → 392 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0031
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.2854
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-totresns_monthly_5y