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Correlation
of values
-31%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
8,118
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on values
95% CI
-33% → -29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
8,118 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,099
8,153
Normalized
11,099
8,153
Prepared
11,099
8,153
Aligned
8,118
8,118
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
8,118
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-31%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
8,118 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
75 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
87 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
87 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,016
A: 2981 / B: 35
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,099 raw → 11,099 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 8,153 prepared
Sign agreement
86.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.1632
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
14.8553
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y