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Correlation
of values
-25%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
2,482
These move opposite each other about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on values
95% CI
-29% → -21%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,482 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
2,514
8,153
Normalized
2,514
8,153
Prepared
2,514
8,153
Aligned
2,482
2,482
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,482
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,482 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
181 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,703
A: 32 / B: 5671
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 8,153 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.3335
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-sp500_daily_5y