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Correlation
of values
+21%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
389
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on values
95% CI
+12% → +31%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
389 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
796
8,153
Normalized
796
8,153
Prepared
796
391
Aligned
389
389
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
389
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
389 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+79%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
140 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
409
A: 407 / B: 2
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
57.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8895
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
12.9272
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y